Notes about economic growth /  by H. Pike Oliver

These are notes from reading a book review article entitled  The World Keeps Getting Richer. Some People are Worried by Idrees Kahloon, posted by The New Yorker on May 27, 2004. The book that is the subject of the review is “Growth: A History and a Reckoning” (Belknap), by Daniel Susskind, an economist at King’s College London.

Economic growth during the past half-century

  • In the fifty years since this manifesto (Limits to Growth book) was written, the American economy has increased fourfold, far outstripping the country’s population, which has increased by sixty percent.

  • Growth during this period has been even more dramatic for the rest of the world. The global economy has become twenty-six times bigger—or twelve times higher per person.

  • In 1970, half of humanity lived in extreme poverty, subsisting on less than two dollars daily.

  • Today, only a tenth of the global population lives in extreme poverty. 

  • When “The Limits to Growth” was published, humanity had emitted half a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the environment as a species.

  • We belched out triple that amount in the ensuing years.

  • The world was just 0.4 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average back then; last year, it was 1.5 degrees warmer and on track to hit three degrees by the end of the century, at which point all kinds of cataclysms are expected—polar ice caps petering out, swollen oceans swallowing the coasts, almighty wildfires, famine, and more.

When significant economic growth began

  • The turning point, which some economists call the Great Divergence, came with the Industrial Revolution. This triggered an explosion in prosperity in Europe and North America and led to the sustained worldwide growth humans still enjoy today.

Recent agonizing about growth

  • When economic growth and productivity both went slack after the 2008 global financial crisis, there was much talk of “secular stagnation”—a term coined by the economist Alvin Hansen after the Great Depression to describe a state of low growth, low inflation, and high unemployment that could persist for years. 

  • In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth,”  published in 2016, the macroeconomist Robert J. Gordon identified major headwinds—increasing inequality, a dysfunctional education system, an aging population, and rising government debt—and forecast long-run stagnation for the coming twenty-five years. 

  • Gordon thought that real GDP growth per capita would be below one percent per year, less than half the rate enjoyed by Americans in the preceding century.

More recent growth reality 

  • Since 2020, though, U.S. growth per person has been more than two percent—even after taking high inflation into account and despite the shock of the pandemic. Tight labor markets and low unemployment mean that wage growth has been strongest at the bottom of the income ladder, so inequality in the U.S. seems to be on a downswing. 

  • Despite notorious angst, people currently in their 20s, including millennials, Gen X-ers, and boomers, are richer than prior U.S. generations at that age.

  • Growth and carbon emissions have decoupled: U.S. annual emissions are seventeen percent less than the six billion tons emitted in 2007, our all-time maximum. 

Future prospects

  • What was merely theoretical looks more practical now, as the world comes to terms with the immense task of decarbonization—and the immense amounts of capital that process will require. 

  • We have more ability than is commonly imagined to shape the kind of growth we will experience in the future. 

  • Public policy does not just influence the magnitude of future growth—it can also influence how green, equally distributed, and truly welfare-enhancing that growth will be. 

  • Capitalism, as it has been practiced throughout the past century, has brought plenty of problems; as with any engine, harnessing it properly requires controlling it. 

  • However, the premise that economic expansion is bound to be part of the problem rather than necessary to the solution is a myth.

Nine of the ten most NIMBY US cities are in the SF Bay Area /  by H. Pike Oliver

High housing prices in the San Francisco Bay Area might have something to do with the fact that a survey of 562 municipalities across the USA, concluded that nine of the ten most NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) are in that region. The jurisdictions all had a population of 75,000 or more.

The following images are screenshots taken from a video presentation of the analysis entitled The Nimby Awards created and posted by CityNerd (Ray Delahanty) on June 1, 2024. The video may be accessed at https://nebula.tv/videos/citynerd-these-are-the-nimbyest-cities-in-the-us.

Scroll down for characteristics of NIMBY cities, the index (called NIMdex) used to select the municipalities and some key facts about: #1 Sunnyvale, CA, #2, Redwood City, CA, #3 Union City, CA, #4, Fremont, CA, #5 San Mateo, CA, #6 Hayward, CA, #7 San Jose, CA, #8 San Leandro, CA, and #10 Livermore, CA. NOTE: ZHVI = Zillow Home Value Index.

Books about real estate development /  by H. Pike Oliver

These four books offer useful information and perspectives on real estate development.

  • Miles, M., Netherton, L., & Schmitt, A. (2015). Real Estate Development: Principles and Process (5th ed.). Urban Land Institute. 

  • Peiser, R.B.. (2019) Real Estate Development: The ULI Guide to the Business (3rd ed.). Urban Land Institute

  • Krone, D.L. (2016) Land Development (10th ed.) Builder Books

  • Schmitz, A. (2004) Residential Development Handbook  (4th ed.) Urban Land Institute

The Urban Land Institute (ULI) offers a comprehensive series of books on other aspects of real estate development, including multi-family housing, office, industrial, retail, and mixed-use development. These can be found at the online ULI Bookstore.

When is it cheaper to rent or buy housing? /  by H. Pike Oliver

Ken Robertson, a real estate agent from Laguna Beach, CA, recently noted, “With soaring housing prices, soaring interest rates, and an uncertain economic outlook, this question is frequently asked these days.” Another question worth asking is, Am I financially better off selling my house or renting it?

Ken provided links to three online calculators to help sort through these questions.

Who was Peter Blake? /  by H. Pike Oliver

Peter Blake (1920 - 2006) was a prominent figure in architecture and urban design. Born in Stralsund on the Baltic in 1920, he was among the many mid-century architects and artists who sought refuge in the United States due to European political upheavals [1]. His return from service in the U.S. military in WWII marked the beginning of a remarkable career. He served as the Curator for the Department of Architecture and Industrial Design at the Museum of Modern Art (MOMA) in New York (1948-1950) and later held various posts, culminating in the role of editor at the prestigious Architectural Forum (1950-1972), and later Architecture Plus (1973-75).

Peter Blake’s contribution to architectual discourse is exemplified in his article "The Folly of Modern Architecture," published in The Atlantic in September 1974 [2]. In this thought-provoking piece, he posed and answered nine questions, ultimately concluding, “I have seen the future, and it doesn’t work”. The following month, The Atlantic published a multi-author critique of Blake's assessment entitled "In Praise (And Castigation) of 'The Folly of Modern Architecture'"[3].

Blake's book, 'No Place Like Utopia: Modern Architecture and the Company We Kept'’ reflects on the Modern Movement in architecture in the era between the wars (WWI and WWII) and through the expanding post-war years[4]. In this book, he delves into the complexities of the Modern Movement, arguing that it was much more than a style coined the 'International Style' by Alfred H. Barr, Jr., Director of MOMA, in 1932.

Blake also wrote another book "Form Follows Fiasco: Why Modern Architecture Hasn't Worked," in which he critiques the fantasies of modern dogma that most architects once accepted[5]. He expresses his disenchantment with open-plan offices and homes, machine-made building materials, heat-transmitting glass facades, and windswept plazas.

Peter Blake's work contributed to the discourse on modern architecture, and his writings continue to influence the field. His reflections on the Modern Movement and his critique of its implementation offer valuable insights into the evolution of architectural and urban design in the 20th century.

An article by Sam Frentress in the May 2024 issue of The Atlantic offers additional perspective on Peter Blake's critique of modern architecture and urban design.[6]

[1] Pogrebin, R. (2006, December 6). Peter Blake, architect, 86, is dead; designed houses in Hamptons. New York Times.

[2] Blake, P. (1974, September). The folly of modern architecture. The Atlantic.

[3] Wood, R., Lapidus, M., White, K., Aldrich, N. W., Owings, N. A., Lefrak, S., Chermayeff, I., Goldberger, P., Lawrence, J., & Kennedy, R. W. (1974, October). In praise (and castigation of “the folly of modern architecture.” The Atlantic.

[4] Blake, P. (1997). No place like utopia: Modern architecture and the company we kept. W.W. Norton.

[5] Blake, P. (1977). Form follows fiasco: Why modern architecture hasn’t worked? Little, Brown.

[6] Fentress, S. (2024, May). The limits of utopia. The Atlantic

Urban travel modes around the world /  by H. Pike Oliver

A study of around 850 million people from 794 urban areas worldwide found that more than half of the respondents commute to work by car every day. Variations in transport tend to follow regional patterns.

The study by Rafael Prieto-Curiel from the Complexity Science Hub in Austria and Juan Pablo Ospina from EAFIT University in Columbia was published in the Environment International Journal in March 2024. It is one of the largest of its kind. It uses more than 1,000 surveys to capture trends in global mobility. The researchers only included trips to work (comparable surveys on general journeys are harder to come by) and surveys conducted before 2019 (to avoid the effect of lockdowns, which hit various cities at different times).

The surveys show where people use the most active forms of travel. The 100 least active cities in the study are all found in North America—a result of decades of government pro-car policies and subsidies. The least active city outside North America is Birmingham, in Britain’s West Midlands, a region long associated with the country’s automotive industry. The most active city is Quelimane, a small seaport in Mozambique. Other cities in the top ten are all in Europe, including two each in the Netherlands and Spain.

  • In the USA and Canada, almost 92% of journeys are made by car.

  • The percentage of commutes by car in Northern and Southern European cities ranges from 50% to 75%.

  • In several European cities, many commutes are made by bike or foot, such as in Copenhagen (47%) and Utrecht (75%).

  • Public transportation is crucial in some European cities. For instance, public transit accounts for most journeys in Paris (60%) and nearly half in London (45%).

  • In Southern and Eastern Asia, public transportation accounts for a significant share of journeys, such as in Hong Kong (77%), Seoul (66%), and Tokyo (51%).

See the charts prepared by the Economist below and find the original article here.

Morris House by Frank Lloyd Wright /  by H. Pike Oliver

The Morris House, also known as “Seacliff,” is an unbuilt design by Frank Lloyd Wright. Conceived in 1945, it was intended for the Morris family on a rocky outcrop at the mouth of San Francisco Bay.

This 18” x 24” archival pigment print edition of 100 is from Van Orton Design, known for their vibrant and unique artistic style, often creating prints of various subjects including pop culture and architecture. https://vanortondesign.com/

Elinor Ostrom and resource management /  by H. Pike Oliver

As noted in a blog post by Richeng Piao, a Visting Lecturer in Economics at Northeastern University, the work of Elinor Ostrom (1933-2012) has had a profound influence on resource management practices through her innovative approach to the governance of common resources.

Here are some key impacts of Dr. Ostrom’s work as highlighted in Dr. Piao’s post:

Elinor Ostrom’s legacy continues to shape and influence environmental policy, resource management, and the study of collective action. Her work provides a robust framework for understanding and managing shared resources sustainably, underscoring the profound impact of her contributions. 

Dr. Ostrom’s is probably most famous for her alternative perspective on the “tragedy of commons”, which was advanced by ecologist and biologist Garret Hardin in an essay entitled “Tragedy of the Commons” in the journal Science in December 1968. ‘Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest,’ he wrote. ‘Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.’ His essay, widely read and accepted, would become one of the most-cited scientific papers of all time.

Hardin concluded the tragedy of the commons could be avoided only through total privatization or total government control, Ostrom, on the other hand, had witnessed groundwater users near her native Los Angeles hammer out a system for sharing their coveted resource. As a professor at Indiana University Bloomington, she studied collaborative management systems developed throughout the world—cattle herders in Switzerland, forest dwellers in Japan, and irrigators in the Philippines. These communities had found ways of both preserving a shared resource – pasture, trees, water – and providing their members with a living.

Ostrom concluded that successful resource management systems include:

  • clear boundaries (the ‘community’ doing the managing must be well-defined);

  • reliable monitoring of the shared resource;

  • a reasonable balance of costs and benefits for participants;

  • a predictable process for the fast and fair resolution of conflicts;

  • an escalating series of punishments for cheaters;

  • and good relationships between the community and other layers of authority, from household heads to international institutions.

Car Harm /  by H. Pike Oliver

A refreshingly clear academic article in the Journal of Transport Geography (vol. 115, February 2024) by five authors from the UK and one from Germany summarizes car-related harm, including crashes, pollution, land use, and injustices worldwide. Rob Delahanty of CityNerd has prepared a well-crafted video reporting on and illustrating the findings of the article.

Key points made in this piece include:

  • 1 in 34 deaths are caused by cars and automobility, with 1,670,000 deaths annually.

  • Cars and automobility have killed 60-80 million people since their invention.

  • Car harm will continue unless policies change.

The totality of the abstract of Car harm: A global review of automobility’s harm to people and the environment is worth quoting:

Despite the widespread harm caused by cars and automobility, governments, corporations, and individuals continue to facilitate it by expanding roads, manufacturing larger vehicles, and subsidising parking, electric cars, and resource extraction. This literature review synthesises the negative consequences of automobility, or car harm, which we have grouped into four categories: violence, ill health, social injustice, and environmental damage. We find that, since their invention, cars and automobility have killed 60–80 million people and injured at least 2 billion. Currently, 1 in 34 deaths are caused by automobility. Cars have exacerbated social inequities and damaged ecosystems in every global region, including in remote car-free places. While some people benefit from automobility, nearly everyone—whether or not they drive—is harmed by it. Slowing automobility's violence and pollution will be impracticable without the replacement of policies that encourage car harm with policies that reduce it. To that end, the paper briefly summarises interventions that are ready for implementation.

This graphic highlights the harms of excessive automobility to the environment and human beings

The authors are Patrick Miner (a b), Barbara M. Smith (c d), Anant Jani (e f), Geraldine McNeill (b), Alfred Gathorne-Hardy (a b)

a) School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Old College, South Bridge, EH8 9YL Edinburgh, UK

b) Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, The University of Edinburgh, Old College, South Bridge, EH8 9YL Edinburgh, UK

c) Centre for Agroecology, Water, and Resilience, Coventry University, Priory Street, CV1 5FB Coventry, UK

d) Central Saint Martins, University of the Arts London, 1 Granary Square, N1C 4AA London, UK

e) Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, 1 Grabengasse, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany

f) Somerville College, The University of Oxford, Wellington Square, OX1 2JD Oxford, UK

Car-free in Arizona? /  by H. Pike Oliver

Jordan Pandy of Business Insider interviewed John-Robert Rodriquez, a 24-year-old school teacher who moved to Culdesac, a car-free community in Tempe, AZ (Phoenix area), in October 2023. Mr. Rodriquez has never liked driving and believes that fewer cars can foster more community. He says life at Culdesac is great, but he still has to deal with the car-dependent world outside its gates. Learn more here.

Walking the World visits Phoenix /  by H. Pike Oliver

"Chris Arnade Walks the World" is a project by photographer and writer Chris Arnade who shares dispatches and photos from his walks around the world. He documents his experiences and observations in a Substack newsletter. His work often provides a unique perspective on the places he visits, as seen in his documentation of homelessness and the drug crisis in Phoenix.

After visiting and lamenting the most downtrodden parts of Phoenix, this is how Arnade summarized the area: Phoenix is a large grid of mile-long four-lane sides, with shopping plazas at the corners and an inside of twisting single-lane roads and simple ranch homes on half-acre plots. Those residential insides are the nice parts, and showing that they’re nice is partly why I’d come to Phoenix: to highlight a version of the American Dream, which, while I might not love and isn’t necessarily “walkable,” is still very appealing to lots of people.

You may view his entire post here.